Is a Global Recession Looming Ahead of us?

There is increasing talk of a certain ‘chill in the air’ that is not exactly connected to the winter around the corner. It’s the economy – ‘is there a global recession coming’ is the question on everyone’s minds, from economists to opinion makers, business leaders to the regular working professional, who is looking at the situation and wondering what happens to their investments.

There are some answers to be found in the 2019 International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report (1) released only this October. Accordingly, global growth is predicted to be 3% for 2019, the lowest since the global financial crisis of 2008. In fact, this figure is a 0.3% point drop from the April 2019 outlook. The IMF has termed this a “synchronized slowdown.”

It’s not the IMF’s report alone. The UN Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) Trade and Development Report 2019 also talks of world economy entering troubled waters. It projects global growth drop to 2.3% in 2019, compared with 3% in 2018.

(Source: IMF)

What factors have led to the recessionary fears looming over the globe?

Some of the factors that have led to this slowdown, or an impending recession include the Sino-US trade war, US growth slump, Chinese debt crisis and geopolitical uncertainties such as Brexit, and The IMF report also notes that in a few major economies such as India, Mexico, Russia, Brazil and South Africa, growth in 2019 is much lower than last year. Germany, Turkey and Venezuela are in recession as well, the report notes.

The Sino-US trade war has been one of the most important factors, with both countries slapping escalating tariffs on each other’s goods, sending the Chinese economy on a downward spiral. The IMF predicts the country’s GDP growth rate will be at 5.8% in 2020.

In India, the warning bells have been ringing for a while, with multiple agencies slashing GDP growth rate projections. The IMF slashed GDP growth rate projection to 6.1 from its earlier 7%. The World Bank too, in its South Asia Economic Focus, pegged the GDP growth rate projection at 6%. India’s GDP grew by 5 % in the April-June quarter, down from 5.8 % in the previous quarter, as per National Statistical Office (NSO) data.

Germany, which is an economy heavily reliant on exports, saw falling demand for capital goods globally, according to a recently released Ifo Institute report. The Ifo Institute’s Joint Economic Forecast for 2019 sees a downward revision from the 0.8 % GDP growth projection earlier this year to just 0.5 % now. The country is experiencing a manufacturing slump.

In fact, when it comes to manufacturing, earlier this year, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for most key economies slipped below 50, a sign of contraction.

(Source: IHS Markit)

In the US, there was an inversion of the yield curve in August, sparking off fears that a recession was just around the corner. The inversion is seen as an indicator of recession – because every recession in US history has been preceded by an inversion. The yield curve is inverted when yields on short-term bonds are higher than those on long-term bonds — a sign that investors are fearful of the future. After months, the curve has normalized but expert opinion is divided on whether it means there are no recession fears.

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Economics recession probability indicator predicts that there are over one in four chances of a recession in the next year. (3) Credit rating agency Fitch(4) has predicted that global GDP growth levels would drop to an eight-year low in 2020. Accordingly, global growth is forecast to drop to 2.6% this year from 3.2% in 2018. In 2020, growth is pegged at 2.5%.

Lessons for investors

So, how should an investor look at the recession?

• If there’s one answer, it is think long-term. If you wish to secure your child’s future, you could opt for a ULIP child plan, available on Bajaj Markets. The premium you pay is invested in equity and debt instruments so you get the benefit of life cover and optimal benefits. Also, you can claim a tax deduction under section 80C or 80CCC for your investment in ULIP.

• It helps if investors have clear, definable and achievable goals and targets.

• Assessing one’s risk profile also helps. If you are someone who’s approaching retirement, your goals and also risk appetite is different from someone who has just started off her career. You could pick one of the mutual funds, on Bajaj Markets, and get comprehensive portfolio summaries and insights into the performance of your investments. What’s more, you don’t have to pay any brokerage fees.

• Keep making steady investments, even during a recession. A good option would be to invest in fixed deposit. The interest rates on Bajaj Markets starts from 8% and can go up to 8.7%. Returns are assured, irrespective of market conditions. Also, you can track your returns online, anytime and anywhere.

• However, assess your investments annually and see if your portfolio needs any tweaks. Ensure that the portfolio is aligned with your long-term goals.

In conclusion, when that recession comes or if it does, it is useful to remember that current market dips that cause panic and fear may look like a minor blip years later. Not losing sight of your personal goals and investing accordingly goes a long way. You could choose one of the mutual fund options, available on Bajaj Markets, to ensure portfolio insights, free account set-up and customized advice based on your profile. Opening an account is effortless and speedy, so you can start investing now.

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